--- title: "Supreme Splendor case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Supreme Splendor ($20.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 297.74% over 119 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Supreme Splendor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Supreme Splendor A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259?window=all) Price · $20.00 · 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 297.74% · 119 openings, odds method Variance · 221.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 667 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 96 openings · below min 30 days · 119 openings · below min since tracking started · 119 openings · below min 29.5% 812.8% 1596.0% **Small sample.** 119 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259?window=24h) | 31 | 1071.51% ±523.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259?window=7d) | 96 | 356.56% ±297.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259) | 119 | 297.74% ±267.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/259?window=all) | 119 | 297.74% ±267.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.4K 10,360 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,600 4,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,150 1,150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $51.97 51.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.8% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× | | [MAG-7 \| Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-factory-new) | 10.7% | $3.26 3.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 17 | 12.8 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 21.3% | $2.60 2.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 24 | 25.3 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| NiKo \| London 2018 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-london-2018) | 1 in 27 | $1.96 1.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [AUG \| Navy Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-battle-scarred) | 24.8% | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 37 | 29.5 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cocoa-rampage-well-worn) | 17.8% | $0.73 0.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 15 | 21.1 | 0.71× | | [Nova \| Windblown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-minimal-wear) | 14.2% | $0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.94× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=259`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 325.0x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=259) [Nova | Windblown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [AUG | Navy Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.26 3.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [AUG | Navy Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC [MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.26 3.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC [AUG | Navy Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 04:49 UTC [Nova | Windblown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC [AUG | Navy Murano (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) [Calz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Calz) $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $51.97 51.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.60x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cocoa-rampage-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.73 0.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.4% #EB4B4B 0.1% mil spec 10.7% restricted 21.3% #4B69FF 3.7% #B0C3D9 24.8% milspec 17.8% Mil Spec 14.2% best hit $6,500 (325.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt