--- title: "Golden Fortune case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Fortune ($100.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 34.02% over 11 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Golden Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Golden Fortune A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263?window=all) Price · $100.00 · 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $90.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 34.02% · 11 openings, odds method Variance · 26.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 53 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 11 openings · below min since tracking started · 11 openings · below min -0.5% 179.0% 358.5% **Small sample.** 11 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263?window=7d) | 10 | 36.77% ±321.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263) | 11 | 34.02% ±306.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/263?window=all) | 11 | 34.02% ±306.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.3K 10,350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,920 7,920 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $5,320 5,320 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3,435 3,435 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 10.8% | $94.00 94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.69× | | [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $44.00 44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 17.3% | $37.19 37.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 20.5% | $35.26 35.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $10.57 10.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) | 23.8% | $6.45 6.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) | 14.0% | $2.61 2.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=263`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=263) [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $37.19 37.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-08 14:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $37.19 37.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-08 14:39 UTC [XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-well-worn) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $44.00 44 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-08 13:49 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6.45 6.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 13:49 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) [ROSSI - SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/ROSSI%20-%20SKINS) $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6.45 6.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-07 12:58 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) [gowon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/gowon) $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.57 10.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $94.00 94 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.94x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $94.00 94 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.94x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $35.26 35.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.35x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.61 2.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 29.8% legendary 0.1% Restricted 7.5% restricted 48.5% #8847ff 14.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt