--- title: "Lux Lotto case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lux Lotto ($4.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 12 items with odds, observed 26.58% over 453 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274 rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lux Lotto](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lux Lotto A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274?window=all) Price · $4.00 · 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $3.60 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 26.58% · 453 openings, odds method Variance · 222.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 909 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66 openings · below min 7 days · 397 openings · below min 30 days · 453 openings · below min since tracking started · 453 openings · below min -0.5% 184.8% 370.0% **Small sample.** 453 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274?window=24h) | 66 | 9.81% ±359.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274?window=7d) | 397 | 27.44% ±146.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274) | 453 | 26.58% ±137.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/274?window=all) | 453 | 26.58% ±137.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 453 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,720 1,720 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $740 740 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 33 | $22.00 22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.4% | 14 | 13.7 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.95 0.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 43 | 50.4 | 0.85× | | [Sticker \| gla1ve (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gla1ve-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 17 | $0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 32 | 25.9 | 1.24× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.43 0.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 46 | 38.1 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-battle-scarred) | 19.2% | $0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 80 | 87.1 | 0.92× | | [Nova \| Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) | 16.5% | $0.29 0.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 61 | 74.9 | 0.81× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| 200 IQ (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-200-iq-brick-red) | 13.8% | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 61 | 62.6 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Aerial (Foil) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aerial-foil-berlin-2019) | 21.9% | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 116 | 99.3 | 1.17× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=274`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=274) [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aerial-foil-berlin-2019) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Nova | Exo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.29 0.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aerial-foil-berlin-2019) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aerial-foil-berlin-2019) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | 200 IQ (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-200-iq-brick-red) [szticky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/szticky) $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | 200 IQ (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-200-iq-brick-red) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.95 0.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.24x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Sticker | Aerial (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aerial-foil-berlin-2019) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC [Sticker | gla1ve (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gla1ve-holo-antwerp-2022) [DaSpiderX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/DaSpiderX) $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.00 | 90.01% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% #4B69FF 3.0% Mythical 11.1% #D32CE6 5.7% mil spec 24.9% milspec 19.2% #B0C3D9 13.8% #8847FF 21.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt