--- title: "Precious Payday case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Precious Payday ($30.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 20.37% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Precious Payday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Precious Payday A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278?window=all) Price · $30.00 · 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 20.37% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 35.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 118 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 27 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min -0.5% 244.8% 490.0% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278?window=24h) | 6 | 13.36% ±475.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278?window=7d) | 27 | 25.31% ±224.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278) | 38 | 20.37% ±189.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/278?window=all) | 38 | 20.37% ±189.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,500 3,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,130 1,130 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $655 655 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $146 146 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $8.26 8.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 21.8% | $4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) | 16.3% | $2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 13.6% | $1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 19.1% | $1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-well-worn) | 10.9% | $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.93× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=278`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=278) [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.26 8.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-11 04:49 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:49 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.46 0.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% covert 7.0% #eb4b4b 2.8% industrial 21.8% #4B69FF 16.3% restricted 13.6% Mil Spec Grade 19.1% milspec 10.9% mil spec 8.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt