--- title: "Poseidon's Realm case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Poseidon's Realm ($475.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 3.08% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Poseidon's Realm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Poseidon's Realm A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280?window=all) Price · $475.00 · 475 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $427.50 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 3.08% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 248.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 400 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 893.8% 1788.0% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280?window=7d) | 3 | 3.08% ±1784.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280) | 3 | 3.08% ±1784.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/280?window=all) | 3 | 3.08% ±1784.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent - 4x IBP (Factory New) weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-4x-ibp-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $150K 150,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 87.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $943 943 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 13.6% | $30.15 30.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $24.95 24.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 10.6% | $16.84 16.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $14.83 14.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) | 1 in 17 | $2.99 2.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) | 15.1% | $2.13 2.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-well-worn) | 12.1% | $1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) | 16.6% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=280`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=280) [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) Hidden $475 475 CSGOBIG\_COIN $16.84 16.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 07:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) [POTATO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/POTATO) $475 475 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.13 2.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 07:59 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) Hidden $475 475 CSGOBIG\_COIN $24.95 24.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-05 07:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $475 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.3% classified 4.5% Legendary 13.6% Consumer Grade 7.6% covert 19.6% remarkable 6.0% Common 31.7% #B0C3D9 15.1% #4b69ff 1.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt