--- title: "Mystic Mirage case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Mirage ($1,150.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Mystic Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Mystic Mirage A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282?window=all) Price · $1,150.00 · 1,150 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,035.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 169.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 400 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/282?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore - pashaBiceps (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #D9A859](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-pashabiceps-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $300K 300,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 72.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-well-worn) | 16.6% | $1,467 1,467 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 13.6% | $180 180 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $82.92 82.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 10.6% | $79.65 79.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $11.81 11.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sticker-bomb-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 17 | $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| TaZ \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taz-krakow-2017) | 1 in 33 | $1.83 1.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| tabseN \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tabsen-krakow-2017) | 1 in 13 | $1.08 1.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| sk0R (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sk0r-holo-antwerp-2022) | 15.1% | $0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| RpK (Foil) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rpk-foil-berlin-2019) | 12.1% | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=282`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=282) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,150 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #D9A859 0.3% mil spec 16.6% Immortal 1.5% covert 13.6% covert knife 4.5% pink 10.6% restricted 9.1% exotic 6.0% #4B69FF 10.6% #D32CE6 15.1% #8847FF 12.1% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt