--- title: "Goblin Gambit case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Goblin Gambit ($1,100.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Goblin Gambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Goblin Gambit A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285?window=all) Price · $1,100.00 · 1,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $990.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 155.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 400 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/285?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $275K 275,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 69.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1,615 1,615 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 13.6% | $700 700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 12.1% | $535 535 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 16.6% | $171 171 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $165 165 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| ZywOo (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-gold-berlin-2019) | 1 in 33 | $69.69 69.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) | 15.1% | $7.67 7.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| GeT\_RiGhT (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-get-right-foil-katowice-2019) | 10.6% | $6.34 6.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir P90 \| Facility Negative (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-facility-negative-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.43 1.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.20 1.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=285`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=285) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,100 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.9% covert knife 13.6% #D32CE6 16.6% #EB4B4B 3.0% #8847ff 15.1% #8847FF 10.6% #4B69FF 1.5% Mil Spec 4.5% #B0C3D9 9.1% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt