--- title: "Halloween Budget case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Halloween Budget ($15.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 134.13% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Halloween Budget](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Halloween Budget A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3?window=all) Price · $15.00 · 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.50 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 134.13% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 5 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min 18.0% 134.3% 250.5% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3?window=7d) | 5 | 134.13% ±115.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3) | 5 | 134.13% ±115.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/3?window=all) | 5 | 134.13% ±115.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $133 133 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Stockholm 2021 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokens other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/stockholm-2021-viewer-pass-3-souvenir-tokens) | 1 in 21 | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [Alyx Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/alyx-pin) | 1 in 11 | $34.02 34.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| AZR (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-azr-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 12 | $30.85 30.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $29.23 29.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $23.99 23.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| FaZe Clan (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 64 | $17.19 17.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · #d2d2d2](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 32 | $14.36 14.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $10.47 10.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $10.30 10.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.97 2.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.49 2.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Tree Adams and Ben Bromfield, M.U.D.D. FORCE music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-tree-adams-and-ben-bromfield-m-u-d-d-force) | 1 in 10 | $1.73 1.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.80 0.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wild-six-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.57 0.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Happy Cat (SWAT Blue) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-happy-cat-swat-blue) | 1 in 24 | $0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Brollan \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-brollan-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 190 | $0.06 0.06 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Evil Geniuses \| 2020 RMR sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-2020-rmr) | 1 in 96 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=3`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=3) [Stockholm 2021 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokens other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/stockholm-2021-viewer-pass-3-souvenir-tokens) Hidden $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.33x 2026-11-08 11:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wild-six-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.57 0.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 11:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.80 0.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-08 11:19 UTC [Stockholm 2021 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokens other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/stockholm-2021-viewer-pass-3-souvenir-tokens) Hidden $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.33x 2026-11-08 11:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN $29.23 29.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.95x 2026-11-08 11:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.00 | 90.00% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 12.9% #B0C3D9 8.8% extraordinary 8.8% #EB4B4B 9.9% Mil Spec Grade 2.1% #d2d2d2 3.1% restricted 5.2% Industrial 7.3% Industrial Grade 6.7% #4B69FF 10.4% mil spec 8.8% #8847FF 9.3% milspec 5.7% violet 1.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt