--- title: "5% Dragon Lore case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Dragon Lore ($650.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [5% Dragon Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 5% Dragon Lore A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300?window=all) Price · $650.00 · 650 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $585.00 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 44.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/300?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $100K 100,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $50K 50,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $30K 30,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $12K 12,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $3,400 3,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 95.0% | $62.10 62.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=300`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=300) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $650 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% legendary 0.5% exotic 95.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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