--- title: "Killer Loadout case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Killer Loadout ($535.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 36.14% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Killer Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Killer Loadout A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306?window=all) Price · $535.00 · 535 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $481.50 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 36.14% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 186.3% 373.0% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306?window=7d) | 3 | 36.14% ±336.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306) | 3 | 36.14% ±336.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/306?window=all) | 3 | 36.14% ±336.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $15.4K 15,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $13K 13,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $10.4K 10,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $5,200 5,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $360 360 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 20.0% | $240 240 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 57.0% | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=306`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=306) [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $535 535 CSGOBIG\_COIN $240 240 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.45x 2026-11-08 16:08 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $535 535 CSGOBIG\_COIN $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-08 16:08 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) [Raven 5K LB BiW](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Raven%205K%20LB%20BiW) $535 535 CSGOBIG\_COIN $240 240 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.45x 2026-11-08 16:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $535 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.3% covert 58.2% contraband 1.5% restricted 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt