--- title: "Faded case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Faded ($0.94) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 6 items with odds, observed 31.91% over 28 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Faded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Faded A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308?window=all) Price · $0.94 · 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $0.85 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 31.91% · 28 openings, odds method Variance · 108.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 91 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 28 openings · below min since tracking started · 28 openings · below min -0.5% 208.5% 417.5% **Small sample.** 28 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308?window=7d) | 28 | 31.91% ±384.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308) | 28 | 31.91% ±384.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/308?window=all) | 28 | 31.91% ±384.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $365 365 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $155 155 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 41.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 44.8% | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.5% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) | 54.1% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.92× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=308`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=308) [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [Cricri gameplays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cricri%20gameplays) $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-09 16:50 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [Cricri gameplays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cricri%20gameplays) $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-09 16:49 UTC [AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) [Cricri gameplays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cricri%20gameplays) $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-09 16:49 UTC [AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-09 11:59 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [Cricri gameplays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cricri%20gameplays) $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-09 07:50 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [Cricri gameplays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cricri%20gameplays) $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-09 07:40 UTC [AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) [Cricri gameplays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cricri%20gameplays) $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-09 07:39 UTC [AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 23:39 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-07 23:39 UTC [AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 23:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.94 | 90.04% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% rare 0.0% covert knife 0.1% mil spec 1.0% #4b69ff 44.8% high 54.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt