--- title: "Cheap Shot case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cheap Shot ($0.50) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.40% from 7 items with odds, observed 2.55% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Cheap Shot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Cheap Shot A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309?window=all) Price · $0.50 · 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.40% · EV $0.45 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 2.55% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 3074.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 21 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 1187.0% 2374.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309?window=7d) | 21 | 2.57% ±2371.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309) | 22 | 2.55% ±2316.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/309?window=all) | 22 | 2.55% ±2316.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 33.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13,333 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Prey (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-prey-factory-new) | 45.0% | $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 6 | 9.9 | 0.61× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) | 55.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 16 | 12.1 | 1.32× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=309`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=309) [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-prey-factory-new) [Traumazard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Traumazard) $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-prey-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 12:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 12:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 12:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-monster-purple) Hidden $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.50 | 90.40% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% epic 0.0% #B0C3D9 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.40 on average: an expected loss of $9.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt