--- title: "Chaos case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chaos ($0.24) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.67% from 5 items with odds, observed 4.17% over 149 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Chaos](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Chaos A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311?window=all) Price · $0.24 · 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 91.67% · EV $0.22 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 4.17% · 149 openings, odds method Variance · 19009.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 135 openings · below min 30 days · 149 openings · below min since tracking started · 149 openings · below min -0.5% 4506.0% 9012.5% **Small sample.** 149 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311?window=24h) | 9 | 4.17% ±9007.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311?window=7d) | 135 | 4.17% ±2325.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311) | 149 | 4.17% ±2213.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/311?window=all) | 149 | 4.17% ±2213.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 36.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 27.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 100.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 149 | 149.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=311`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=311) [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Niki BG Ritas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Niki%20BG%20Ritas) $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Niki BG Ritas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Niki%20BG%20Ritas) $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Niki BG Ritas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Niki%20BG%20Ritas) $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 05:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Niki BG Ritas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Niki%20BG%20Ritas) $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 03:30 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [Niki BG Ritas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Niki%20BG%20Ritas) $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:40 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) [latvian licker](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/latvian%20licker) $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 19:00 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-10 02:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.24 | 91.67% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% high 0.0% consumer 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.67 on average: an expected loss of $8.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt