--- title: "Feeling Rusty case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Feeling Rusty ($2.12) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.83% from 8 items with odds, observed 176.08% over 40 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Feeling Rusty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Feeling Rusty A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312?window=all) Price · $2.12 · 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.83% · EV $1.90 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 176.08% · 40 openings, odds method Variance · 28.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 34 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min -0.5% 178.5% 357.5% **Small sample.** 40 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312?window=7d) | 34 | 176.28% ±180.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312) | 40 | 176.08% ±166.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/312?window=all) | 40 | 176.08% ±166.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $325 325 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 37.0% | $2.40 2.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 46.6% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× | | [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) | 60.0% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 24 | 24.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=312`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=312) [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 18:39 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 18:39 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.40 2.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.13x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.40 2.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.13x 2026-11-08 14:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.12 | 89.83% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% covert 0.2% #ffd700 0.1% mil spec 2.6% Industrial Grade 37.0% milspec 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.83 on average: an expected loss of $10.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt