--- title: "10% Dagger case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Dagger ($9.09) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 9 items with odds, observed 127.88% over 125 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [10% Dagger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 10% Dagger A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313?window=all) Price · $9.09 · 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $8.19 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 127.88% · 125 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 146.27% ±51.35 108 openings 30 days · 127.88% ±47.73 125 openings since tracking started · 127.88% ±47.73 125 openings -0.5% 136.8% 274.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313?window=24h) | 9 | 95.34% ±177.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313?window=7d) | 108 | 146.27% ±51.3 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313) | 125 | 127.88% ±47.7 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/313?window=all) | 125 | 127.88% ±47.7 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $160 160 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $120 120 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.60× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $70.00 70 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.7% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.60× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.7% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× | | [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) | 90.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.0% | 113 | 112.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=313`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 55.01x 2026-11-04 18:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=313) [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 02:29 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 02:29 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 02:29 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) [Necrz25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Necrz25) $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:39 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:39 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:39 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $70.00 70 CSGOBIG\_COIN 7.70x 2026-11-10 21:09 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:09 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 21:09 UTC [Shadow Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case) Hidden $9.09 9.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-10 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.09 | 90.04% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.0% #ffd700 3.0% Base Grade 90.0% best hit $500 (55.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt