--- title: "Nightshade case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nightshade ($5.50) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.06% from 10 items with odds, observed 9.32% over 107 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Nightshade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Nightshade A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314?window=all) Price · $5.50 · 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.06% · EV $4.95 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 9.32% · 107 openings, odds method Variance · 44.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 78 openings · below min 30 days · 107 openings · below min since tracking started · 107 openings · below min -0.5% 199.0% 398.5% **Small sample.** 107 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314?window=24h) | 11 | 1.82% ±396.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314?window=7d) | 78 | 9.94% ±148.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314) | 107 | 9.32% ±127.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314?window=all) | 107 | 9.32% ±127.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 107 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $280 280 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 21.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 30.3% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.19× | | [R8 Revolver \| Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) | 18.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 24 | 19.3 | 1.25× | | [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) | 75.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 82 | 80.3 | 1.02× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=314`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=314) [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) [Cl0udStr1fe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cl0udStr1fe) $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-battle-scarred) [avgdegen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/avgdegen) $5.50 5.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.50 | 90.06% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 5.0% covert 1.5% Covert 0.2% knifes 0.3% consumer 18.0% #777777 75.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.06 on average: an expected loss of $9.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt