--- title: "Risky Business case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Risky Business ($247.72) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 24.57% over 21 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Risky Business](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Risky Business A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321?window=all) Price · $247.72 · 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $222.95 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 24.57% · 21 openings, odds method Variance · 17.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 21 openings · below min since tracking started · 21 openings · below min -0.5% 105.3% 211.0% **Small sample.** 21 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321?window=7d) | 20 | 25.73% ±184.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321) | 21 | 24.57% ±180.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/321?window=all) | 21 | 24.57% ±180.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $69K 69,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $13K 13,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $450 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 15.0% | $180 180 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 22.0% | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.73× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 30.0% | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=321`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=321) [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [gowon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/gowon) $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $450 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.82x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $180 180 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.73x 2026-11-08 02:59 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $180 180 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.73x 2026-11-08 02:59 UTC [USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 02:59 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) [gowon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/gowon) $248 248 CSGOBIG\_COIN $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.20x 2026-11-08 02:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $248 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert 19.9% covert knife 10.0% #eb4b4b 18.0% blue 22.0% violet 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt