--- title: "Supernova case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Supernova ($1,154.28) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Supernova](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Supernova A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327?window=all) Price · $1,154.28 · 1,154 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,038.85 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 13.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/327?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $51K 51,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 133 | $20K 20,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $11K 11,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 80 | $8,600 8,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $4,000 4,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $2,200 2,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $288 288 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 25.0% | $125 125 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 40.0% | $46.00 46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=327`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=327) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,154 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 48.5% #EB4B4B 0.8% contraband 1.8% epic 9.0% extraordinary 40.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt