--- title: "Fireball case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fireball ($46.81) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 159.53% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Fireball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Fireball A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331?window=all) Price · $46.81 · 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $42.13 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 159.53% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 22.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 197.0% 394.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331?window=7d) | 10 | 56.74% ±296.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331) | 16 | 159.53% ±234.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/331?window=all) | 16 | 159.53% ±234.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,800 5,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $900 900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 40.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 17.0% | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 26.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) | 39.0% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.28× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=331`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $900 900 CSGOBIG\_COIN 19.23x 2026-11-04 05:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=331) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN 5.34x 2026-11-09 06:18 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 12:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 12:59 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-08 12:59 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-07 10:20 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 10:20 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) [BigD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/BigD) $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 10:20 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-04 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) Hidden $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-04 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) [Barthicus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Barthicus) $46.81 46.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-04 14:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $46.81 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.1% epic 1.9% restricted 4.0% classified 31.0% exotic 17.0% mil spec 39.0% best hit $900 (19.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt