--- title: "10% Black Pearl case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Black Pearl ($641.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.16% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [10% Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 10% Black Pearl A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338?window=all) Price · $641.00 · 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $576.90 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.16% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 15.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min -0.5% 275.5% 551.5% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338?window=24h) | 2 | 0.02% ±550.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338?window=7d) | 14 | 89.16% ±208.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338) | 14 | 89.16% ±208.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/338?window=all) | 14 | 89.16% ±208.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $20K 20,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 34.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $12K 12,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $7,000 7,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $3,500 3,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $800 800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $381 381 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) | 90.0% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 13 | 12.6 | 1.03× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=338`, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN 12.48x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=338) [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:09 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:09 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC [Sticker | This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) Hidden $641 641 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 07:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $641 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 1.0% covert 9.0% high 90.0% best hit $8,000 (12.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt