--- title: "Supernatural case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Supernatural ($3,888.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 6.17% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Supernatural](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Supernatural A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348?window=all) Price · $3,888.00 · 3,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3,499.21 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.17% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 262.8% 526.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348?window=24h) | 1 | 6.17% ±519.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348?window=7d) | 1 | 6.17% ±519.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348) | 1 | 6.17% ±519.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/348?window=all) | 1 | 6.17% ±519.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $82K 82,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $49K 49,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $31K 31,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $22K 22,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 50 | $15K 15,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11K 11,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $8,650 8,650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4,600 4,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1,250 1,250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $475 475 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $240 240 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $110 110 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 24.0% | $39.20 39.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=348`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=348) [★ Bayonet | Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-battle-scarred) [DPG (ಠ\_ಠ)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/DPG%20%28%E0%B2%A0_%E0%B2%A0%29) $3,888 3,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN $240 240 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3,888 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% covert 74.0% extraordinary 1.0% remarkable 1.0% epic 6.0% #4b69ff 17.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt