--- title: "Nebula case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nebula ($3.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 15 items with odds, observed 76.67% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Nebula](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Nebula A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35?window=all) Price · $3.00 · 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $2.70 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.67% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 24.5% 76.8% 129.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35?window=7d) | 12 | 76.67% ±51.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35) | 12 | 76.67% ±51.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/35?window=all) | 12 | 76.67% ±51.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $10.72 10.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $10.45 10.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $8.66 8.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $6.07 6.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.43 4.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $4.34 4.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.82 2.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.71× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.54 1.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $1.49 1.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.15× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1.37 1.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) | 11.3% | $1.37 1.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× | | [P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) | 10.6% | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 12.1% | $0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=35`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=35) [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.49 1.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.43 4.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.48x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.49 1.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.82 2.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.94x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.73x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) [HarryHeaded](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/HarryHeaded) $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.37 1.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.46x 2026-11-09 12:09 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.20 2.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.73x 2026-11-08 04:29 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.82 2.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.94x 2026-11-08 04:29 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.43 4.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.48x 2026-11-08 04:29 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.49 1.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-08 04:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.00 | 90.01% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 57.7% classified 2.0% Mythical 9.4% Restricted 18.8% violet 12.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt