--- title: "Ethereal case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ethereal ($14.80) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 51.09% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ethereal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ethereal A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358?window=all) Price · $14.80 · 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.32 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.09% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 32.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 35 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 25 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min -0.5% 140.3% 281.0% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358?window=7d) | 25 | 56.99% ±223.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358) | 32 | 51.09% ±197.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/358?window=all) | 32 | 51.09% ±197.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,020 3,020 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,060 1,060 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $650 650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $400 400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $265 265 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $125 125 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $90.00 90 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $67.00 67 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $41.00 41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $26.00 26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 12.6% | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.2% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 21.4% | $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.4% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) | 57.6% | $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=358`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=358) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.95x 2026-11-10 04:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 04:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 04:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 02:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.95x 2026-11-09 19:10 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-09 19:10 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) [da ander](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/da%20ander) $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-09 19:10 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.88 1.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-08 14:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.95x 2026-11-08 14:39 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) [B1NG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/B1NG) $14.80 14.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7.70 7.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.52x 2026-11-08 14:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.80 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 21.9% gold 0.1% Covert 0.2% covert knife 0.5% classified 14.9% extraordinary 1.1% Classified 3.8% Consumer Grade 57.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt