--- title: "The Reserve case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Reserve ($5,321.88) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 17 items with odds, observed 45.10% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [The Reserve](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · The Reserve A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364?window=all) Price · $5,321.88 · 5,322 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4,789.70 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.10% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 319.0% 638.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364?window=7d) | 1 | 45.10% ±592.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364) | 1 | 45.10% ±592.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/364?window=all) | 1 | 45.10% ±592.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field Tested) - Pattern 387 knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested-pattern-387) | 1 in 500 | $200K 200,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent - 4x IBP (Factory New) weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-4x-ibp-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $150K 150,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $75K 75,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $55K 55,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $33K 33,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $25K 25,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $10K 10,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $8,500 8,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $6,500 6,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4,700 4,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $3,700 3,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 17 | $3,020 3,020 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 11.0% | $2,400 2,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 15.0% | $1,250 1,250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $960 960 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $580 580 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=364`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5,322 5,322 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2,400 2,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.45x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=364) [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5,322 5,322 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2,400 2,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.45x 2026-11-08 03:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5,322 | 90.00% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.7% legendary 2.5% remarkable 18.0% extraordinary 1.3% covert 77.5% best hit $2,400 (0.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt