--- title: "Lucky AF case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lucky AF ($3.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 116.82% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lucky AF](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lucky AF A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38?window=all) Price · $3.00 · 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.70 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.82% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 126.5% 253.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38?window=7d) | 4 | 35.42% ±217.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38) | 22 | 116.82% ±92.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/38?window=all) | 22 | 116.82% ±92.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $212 212 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $28.94 28.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 47.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| B1ad3 \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-krakow-2017) | 1 in 18 | $4.33 4.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Music Kit \| Matt Levine, Drifter music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-matt-levine-drifter) | 1 in 13 | $2.36 2.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 14.3% | $1.33 1.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Adepta Sororitas sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-adepta-sororitas) | 1 in 10 | $0.88 0.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.38× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Little Bock (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-bock-blood-red) | 13.2% | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.73× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Shining Star (Wire Blue) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shining-star-wire-blue) | 12.1% | $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× | | [Sticker \| Renegades \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-renegades-berlin-2019) | 1 in 45 | $0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Come Here Boy sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-come-here-boy) | 11.0% | $0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [MP7 \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $0.13 0.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| GGEZ (Frog Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-frog-green) | 1 in 15 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.38× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=38`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=38) [Sealed Graffiti | Shining Star (Wire Blue) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shining-star-wire-blue) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-10 02:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.70x 2026-11-10 02:18 UTC [Sticker | Adepta Sororitas sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-adepta-sororitas) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.88 0.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-08 20:09 UTC [Sticker | Adepta Sororitas sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-adepta-sororitas) Hidden $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.88 0.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-08 20:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.00 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 4.4% Industrial Grade 3.3% #4B69FF 18.7% High Grade 17.6% Uncommon 8.8% restricted 14.3% #B0C3D9 31.8% blue 1.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt