--- title: "Neon Fusion case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Neon Fusion ($16.14) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 9 items with odds, observed 130.91% over 7 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Neon Fusion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Neon Fusion A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381?window=all) Price · $16.14 · 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.52 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 130.91% · 7 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 7 openings · below min 30 days · 7 openings · below min since tracking started · 7 openings · below min -0.5% 145.0% 290.5% **Small sample.** 7 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381?window=7d) | 7 | 130.91% ±158.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381) | 7 | 130.91% ±158.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/381?window=all) | 7 | 130.91% ±158.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $285 285 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $119 119 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $40.00 40 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $28.91 28.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $10.78 10.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $5.78 5.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $3.93 3.93 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=381`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=381) [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.78 5.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.36x 2026-11-07 11:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.93 3.93 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.24x 2026-11-07 11:39 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $119 119 CSGOBIG\_COIN 7.36x 2026-11-07 11:39 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) [Just Gamba](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Just%20Gamba) $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.78 5.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.36x 2026-11-07 11:39 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-07 09:18 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-07 09:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.14 16.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.78 10.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.67x 2026-11-07 09:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.14 | 89.98% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 29.0% red 19.0% Legendary 22.0% pink 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt