--- title: "Code Red case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Code Red ($3.46) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 81.27% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Code Red](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Code Red A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382?window=all) Price · $3.46 · 3.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.11 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.27% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 38.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 5 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min -0.5% 133.5% 267.5% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382?window=24h) | 4 | 77.46% ±189.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382?window=7d) | 5 | 81.27% ±169.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382) | 5 | 81.27% ±169.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/382?window=all) | 5 | 81.27% ±169.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $122 122 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $36.01 36.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 34.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $35.87 35.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $10.61 10.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 34.4% | $3.34 3.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 36.9% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.33× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 17.0% | $2.35 2.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | $0.70 0.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=382`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=382) [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.46 3.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.70 0.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $3.46 3.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.34 3.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $3.46 3.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.34 3.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $3.46 3.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.34 3.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $3.46 3.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.34 3.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.97x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.46 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 3.6% pink 34.4% restricted 62.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt