--- title: "Talon Twister case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Talon Twister ($199.99) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 41.72% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Talon Twister](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Talon Twister A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386?window=all) Price · $199.99 · 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $179.99 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 41.72% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 272.5% 545.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386?window=24h) | 4 | 187.55% ±357.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386?window=7d) | 18 | 41.72% ±168.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386) | 18 | 41.72% ±168.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/386?window=all) | 18 | 41.72% ±168.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $4,500 4,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $3,900 3,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 21.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $3,400 3,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,400 2,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $900 900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $550 550 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $365 365 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $275 275 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 90.0% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=386`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 7.50x 2026-11-10 17:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=386) [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 7.50x 2026-11-10 17:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:59 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $200 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% legendary 1.0% epic 1.0% gold 1.0% covert knife 3.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $1,500 (7.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt