--- title: "Phantom case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Phantom ($1,180.56) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 2.39% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Phantom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Phantom A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387?window=all) Price · $1,180.56 · 1,181 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,062.50 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 2.39% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 144.8% 290.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387) | 4 | 2.39% ±286.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/387?window=all) | 4 | 2.39% ±286.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $26.5K 26,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $16K 16,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11K 11,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $8,500 8,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 100 | $7,000 7,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5,500 5,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4,500 4,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,100 1,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $92.00 92 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) | 30.0% | $7.00 7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=387`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=387) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,181 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% covert 47.0% contraband 1.0% classified 20.0% remarkable 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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