---
title: "Lucky Fortune case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Lucky Fortune ($11.96) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 24 items with odds, observed 216.83% over 605 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lucky Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lucky Fortune

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388?window=all)

Price · $11.96 · 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $10.76 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 216.83% · 605 openings, odds method

Variance · 452.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 35 openings · below min

7 days · 521 openings · below min

30 days · 605 openings · below min

since tracking started · 605 openings · below min

-0.5% 352.3% 705.0%

**Small sample.** 605 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388?window=24h) | 35 | 0.08% ±704.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388?window=7d) | 521 | 184.98% ±182.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388) | 605 | 216.83% ±169.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/388?window=all) | 605 | 216.83% ±169.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 608 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $35K 35,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $27.1K 27,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $19.1K 19,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $15.1K 15,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 28,571 | $13.6K 13,613 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 28,571 | $10.4K 10,413 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 28,571 | $9,513 9,513 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,013 8,013 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 13,333 | $5,713 5,713 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,113 5,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,113 4,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,513 2,513 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,113 2,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,313 1,313 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,313 1,313 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $913 913 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $813 813 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $713 713 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $470 470 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $361 361 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $273 273 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $213 213 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $123 123 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) | 99.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 596 | 601.9 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=388`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5,113 5,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN 427.5x 2026-11-10 04:29 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2,513 2,513 CSGOBIG\_COIN 210.1x 2026-11-04 12:49 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2,113 2,113 CSGOBIG\_COIN 176.7x 2026-11-07 04:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,313 1,313 CSGOBIG\_COIN 109.8x 2026-11-07 03:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,313 1,313 CSGOBIG\_COIN 109.8x 2026-11-04 12:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $813 813 CSGOBIG\_COIN 67.98x 2026-11-06 04:49 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $713 713 CSGOBIG\_COIN 59.62x 2026-11-08 06:18 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $713 713 CSGOBIG\_COIN 59.62x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=388)

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 06:49 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:49 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) [smschico =\]===>](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/smschico%20%3D%5D%3D%3D%3D%26gt%3B) $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | GGEZ (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-ggez-dust-brown) Hidden $11.96 11.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $11.96 | 89.97% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.6% contraband 0.0% epic 0.1% restricted 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% #B0C3D9 99.0% best hit $5,113 (427.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt