--- title: "Cheeky AF case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cheeky AF ($4.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 217.50% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Cheeky AF](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Cheeky AF A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39?window=all) Price · $4.00 · 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3.60 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 217.50% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 348.3% 697.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39?window=7d) | 1 | 217.50% ±478.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39) | 1 | 217.50% ±478.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/39?window=all) | 1 | 217.50% ±478.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $911 911 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $28.00 28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| DavCost (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-davcost-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 89 | $14.98 14.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 13.1% | $8.70 8.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $7.61 7.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/col-mangos-dabisi-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 13 | $5.90 5.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| ENCE (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ence-gold-antwerp-2022) | 14.2% | $2.15 2.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-battle-scarred) | 10.9% | $1.72 1.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.13 1.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Negev \| Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-morris-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Prey (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Cocky (Princess Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-cocky-princess-pink) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=39`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=39) [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 4 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.70 8.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.18x 2026-11-05 01:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.00 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.0% classified 13.4% #D32CE6 1.1% violet 7.7% #EB4B4B 14.2% gray 8.8% Consumer Grade 10.9% #4b69ff 4.4% mil spec 6.6% milspec 3.3% Common 5.5% #B0C3D9 12.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt