--- title: "Aurora case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Aurora ($546.23) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Aurora](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Aurora A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390?window=all) Price · $546.23 · 546 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $491.61 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 45.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/390?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent - 4x IBP (Factory New) weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-4x-ibp-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $125K 125,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $70K 70,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $45K 45,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $16.5K 16,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $11.4K 11,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $6,200 6,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $3,300 3,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $650 650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $120 120 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 18.3% | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 33.3% | $7.00 7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=390`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=390) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $546 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.1% legendary 2.4% remarkable 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% covert 60.1% contraband 0.5% covert knife 6.0% classified 12.5% red 18.3% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt