--- title: "Fractured case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fractured ($12.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 189.92% over 9 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Fractured](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Fractured A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4?window=all) Price · $12.00 · 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.80 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 189.92% · 9 openings, odds method Variance · 32.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 9 openings · below min since tracking started · 9 openings · below min -0.5% 555.2% 1111.0% **Small sample.** 9 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4?window=24h) | 1 | 0.25% ±1109.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4?window=7d) | 1 | 0.25% ±1109.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4) | 9 | 189.92% ±369.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/4?window=all) | 9 | 189.92% ±369.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,215 1,215 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 33.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $37.16 37.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $16.44 16.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $15.19 15.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.50 10.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $6.57 6.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Darude, Moments CSGO music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-darude-moments-csgo) | 1 in 16 | $6.49 6.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $5.58 5.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Train Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/train-pin) | 1 in 25 | $4.11 4.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $4.07 4.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.03 3.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-twist-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $1.22 1.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-swag-7-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.60 0.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Ash Wood (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Death Sentence (Battle Green) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-battle-green) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=4`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=4) [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Battle Green) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-battle-green) Hidden $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.00 | 90.00% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.5% classified 9.3% industrial 9.9% #D32CE6 1.7% restricted 24.4% milspec 1.8% #4B69FF 13.9% high 4.1% Mil Spec 11.0% Restricted 5.2% consumer 8.1% Common 9.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt