--- title: "5% Knife case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Knife ($5.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 47.38% over 1,036 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40 rendered: 2026-11-11T12:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [5% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 5% Knife A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4.50 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.38% · 1,036 openings, odds method Variance · 37.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 82 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 151 openings · below min 7 days · 43.06% ±40.65 861 openings 30 days · 47.38% ±37.06 1,036 openings since tracking started · 47.38% ±37.06 1,036 openings -0.5% 78.0% 156.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (10.32% – 84.44%, 1,036 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40?window=24h) | 151 | 58.83% ±97.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40?window=7d) | 861 | 43.06% ±40.6 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40) | 1,036 | 47.38% ±37.1 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/40?window=all) | 1,036 | 47.38% ±37.1 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,038 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,840 1,840 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $912 912 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $439 439 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $435 435 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $199 199 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $90.00 90 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.0% | 20 | 15.6 | 1.28× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $51.69 51.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.2% | 15 | 23.7 | 0.63× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) | 95.0% | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 1,000 | 986.1 | 1.01× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=40`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=40) [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) [Jrd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Jrd) $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-blood-red) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.0% covert 4.1% covert knife 0.9% #B0C3D9 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt