--- title: "Storm Watch case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Storm Watch ($220.53) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 0.02% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Storm Watch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Storm Watch A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405?window=all) Price · $220.53 · 221 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $198.48 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.02% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 27.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 64 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 512.5% 1025.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405?window=7d) | 1 | 0.02% ±1025.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405) | 6 | 0.02% ±418.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/405?window=all) | 6 | 0.02% ±418.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $48K 48,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.9K 15,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $12K 12,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $11.3K 11,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4,800 4,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $4,300 4,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $3,800 3,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $3,100 3,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $1,650 1,650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cologne-2016-cobblestone-souvenir-package) | 1 in 200 | $1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $314 314 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| X-Knives (Desert Amber) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-x-knives-desert-amber) | 45.0% | $0.06 0.06 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-mask-factory-new) | 45.0% | $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=405`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=405) [R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-mask-factory-new) Hidden $221 221 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 17:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $221 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.6% contraband 0.5% extraordinary 1.5% #EB4B4B 3.9% #B0C3D9 90.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt