---
title: "Reality Glitch case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Reality Glitch ($52.90) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 37 items with odds, observed 113.42% over 1 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Reality Glitch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Reality Glitch

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407?window=all)

Price · $52.90 · 52.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $47.61 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.42% · 1 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 1 openings · below min

30 days · 1 openings · below min

since tracking started · 1 openings · below min

-0.5% 166.0% 332.5%

**Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407?window=7d) | 1 | 113.42% ±218.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407) | 1 | 113.42% ±218.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/407?window=all) | 1 | 113.42% ±218.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $900 900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $450 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $190 190 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $190 190 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $190 190 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $179 179 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $170 170 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| ShahZaM (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shahzam-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 100 | $140 140 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $105 105 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $99.00 99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Skadoodle (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skadoodle-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 20 | $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $70.00 70 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $65.00 65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| pashaBiceps (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pashabiceps-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 50 | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $58.00 58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 33 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| markeloff \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-markeloff-cologne-2016) | 1 in 33 | $48.00 48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-dust-ii-souvenir-package) | 1 in 33 | $44.00 44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| peet \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-peet-cologne-2015) | 1 in 20 | $42.00 42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| FalleN (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fallen-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 100 | $41.00 41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| captainMo \| Boston 2018 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Rickeh (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rickeh-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 100 | $28.00 28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| B1ad3 (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 20 | $22.00 22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| nawwk (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nawwk-gold-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 33 | $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| tenzki \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tenzki-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 33 | $17.00 17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| coldzera (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 20 | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $10.00 10 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 33 | $8.00 8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $7.00 7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Well-Worn) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $6.00 6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get You music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-lifes-not-out-to-get-you) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/katowice-2019-overpass-souvenir-package) | 1 in 17 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=407`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=407)

[Sticker | pashaBiceps (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pashabiceps-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $52.90 52.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.13x 2026-11-05 16:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $52.90 | 90.00% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #EB4B4B 6.0% covert knife 4.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert 8.9% #d32ee6 1.0% Covert 3.2% #D32CE6 11.0% Restricted 13.8% extraordinary 3.0% #4B69FF 23.0% high 6.0% Base Grade 3.0% classified 6.0% #8847FF 5.0% base 6.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt