--- title: "Merlins Mirage case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Merlins Mirage ($22.46) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 19 items with odds, observed 53.43% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Merlins Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Merlins Mirage A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410?window=all) Price · $22.46 · 22.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $20.21 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.43% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 15.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 416.0% 832.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410?window=7d) | 1 | 53.43% ±778.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410) | 1 | 53.43% ±778.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/410?window=all) | 1 | 53.43% ±778.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,760 6,760 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,075 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,600 1,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| pashaBiceps (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pashabiceps-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 50 | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 100 | $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-dust-ii-souvenir-package) | 1 in 16 | $44.00 44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Rickeh (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rickeh-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 33 | $28.00 28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| nawwk (Gold) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nawwk-gold-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 13 | $20.00 20 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| tenzki \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tenzki-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 14 | $17.00 17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| coldzera (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 13 | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 17.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=410`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=410) [Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $22.46 22.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-07 15:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.46 | 89.98% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% extraordinary 1.0% covert 9.6% classified 0.2% #4B69FF 9.0% high 1.0% Base Grade 6.1% #EB4B4B 11.0% #8847FF 8.0% #8847ff 12.0% Classified 17.0% Rare 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt