--- title: "Obsidian case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Obsidian ($57.14) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 15 items with odds, observed 45.78% over 11 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Obsidian](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Obsidian A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414?window=all) Price · $57.14 · 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $51.43 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.78% · 11 openings, odds method Variance · 66.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 80 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 11 openings · below min 30 days · 11 openings · below min since tracking started · 11 openings · below min -0.5% 591.8% 1184.0% **Small sample.** 11 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414?window=24h) | 2 | 54.04% ±1129.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414?window=7d) | 11 | 45.78% ±481.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414) | 11 | 45.78% ±481.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/414?window=all) | 11 | 45.78% ±481.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $15K 15,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,800 8,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,400 4,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,100 1,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $915 915 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $685 685 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 100 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 12.0% | $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 13.0% | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=414`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=414) [AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.05x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 08:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 08:50 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.05x 2026-11-09 08:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 08:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-09 08:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) [JACK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/JACK1) $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.00 25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.44x 2026-11-09 08:50 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 12:29 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.14 57.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.75x 2026-11-06 12:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $57.14 | 90.01% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% legendary 0.2% classified 10.1% extraordinary 2.5% remarkable 1.0% red 12.0% Ancient 13.0% restricted 15.0% milspec 18.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt