--- title: "Paradox case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Paradox ($12.84) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 28.15% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Paradox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Paradox A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415?window=all) Price · $12.84 · 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $11.55 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 28.15% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 16.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 42 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 33 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min -0.5% 231.5% 463.5% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415?window=24h) | 3 | 6.23% ±456.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415?window=7d) | 33 | 14.97% ±137.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415) | 44 | 28.15% ±119.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/415?window=all) | 44 | 28.15% ±119.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,150 1,150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $685 685 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $400 400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $300 300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $73.00 73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $59.00 59 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 16 | $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.80× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.82× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 12.5% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-calligraffiti-battle-scarred) | 19.5% | $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.82× | | [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-well-worn) | 35.7% | $0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 18 | 15.7 | 1.14× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=415`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=415) [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-calligraffiti-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.39x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-well-worn) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 04:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-well-worn) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) [ilovebigspins](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/ilovebigspins) $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.23x 2026-11-10 04:59 UTC [Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.00 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.17x 2026-11-09 17:30 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-well-worn) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 17:30 UTC [G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-well-worn) Hidden $12.84 12.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.07 0.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 17:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.84 | 89.97% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.3% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 12.7% rare 0.3% covert knife 0.7% #eb4b4b 2.7% industrial 3.8% #D32CE6 6.3% classified 15.8% milspec 55.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt