--- title: "Killshot case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Killshot ($753.09) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Killshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Killshot A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416?window=all) Price · $753.09 · 753 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $677.78 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 12.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/416?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $48K 48,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $16K 16,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $6,200 6,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5,500 5,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 25 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $800 800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 14 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $370 370 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $210 210 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $92.00 92 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 10.0% | $48.00 48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 15.0% | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 20.0% | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=416`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=416) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $753 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 52.8% extraordinary 8.3% contraband 2.0% legendary 2.0% mil spec 15.0% Ancient 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt