--- title: "Cipher case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cipher ($3,455.81) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Cipher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Cipher A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425?window=all) Price · $3,455.81 · 3,456 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3,110.23 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/425?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) - Pattern 661 StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear-pattern-661) | 1 in 1,000 | $100K 100,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $69.4K 69,420 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $51.7K 51,745 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $41K 41,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $36.2K 36,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $31.4K 31,450 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 100 | $21.5K 21,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 50 | $12.8K 12,850 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9,985 9,985 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $7,700 7,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $4,725 4,725 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 10.0% | $3,550 3,550 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2,000 2,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 14 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 10.0% | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 15.0% | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 26.4% | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=425`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=425) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3,456 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #D32CE6 0.1% legendary 3.4% covert 55.8% remarkable 0.3% base 1.0% contraband 6.0% extraordinary 33.4% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt