--- title: "The Come Up case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Come Up ($29.54) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 82.56% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [The Come Up](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · The Come Up A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426?window=all) Price · $29.54 · 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.58 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.56% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 99.8% 200.0% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426?window=7d) | 18 | 82.56% ±116.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426) | 18 | 82.56% ±116.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/426?window=all) | 18 | 82.56% ±116.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $5,500 5,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet) | 1 in 2,000 | $450 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $215 215 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 10.0% | $39.00 39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 10.0% | $23.00 23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [Sticker \| Snax (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-foil-krakow-2017) | 10.0% | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.54× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=426`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=426) [StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $23.00 23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.78x 2026-11-10 06:39 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-well-worn) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 06:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-syd-mead-battle-scarred) [da ander](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/da%20ander) $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.00 3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-10 06:39 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-10 01:19 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [NbWzen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/NbWzen) $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.17x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-well-worn) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC [Sticker | Snax (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.47x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-well-worn) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.39x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC [Sticker | Snax (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $29.54 29.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.47x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.54 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 21.1% contraband 0.0% covert knife 0.1% classified 43.0% remarkable 10.0% restricted 10.8% #8847FF 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt