--- title: "Heartbreaker case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heartbreaker ($39.16) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 7 items with odds, observed 479.51% over 2 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Heartbreaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Heartbreaker A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434?window=all) Price · $39.16 · 39.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $35.25 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 479.51% · 2 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 2 openings · below min 30 days · 2 openings · below min since tracking started · 2 openings · below min 89.5% 419.8% 750.0% **Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434?window=7d) | 2 | 479.51% ±269.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434) | 2 | 479.51% ±269.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/434?window=all) | 2 | 479.51% ±269.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $901 901 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $361 361 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 41.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $74.27 74.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 16.0% | $44.56 44.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $14.41 14.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 19.0% | $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 30.9% | $1.52 1.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=434`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=434) [★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $39.16 39.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN $361 361 CSGOBIG\_COIN 9.22x 2026-11-07 12:49 UTC [Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.16 39.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.41 14.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.37x 2026-11-07 12:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $39.16 | 90.01% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 46.1% covert 4.0% restricted 49.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt