--- title: "Guns & Roses case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Guns & Roses ($14.14) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 86.47% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Guns & Roses](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Guns & Roses A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435?window=all) Price · $14.14 · 14.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $12.72 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.47% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 154.8% 310.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435?window=7d) | 4 | 86.47% ±222.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435) | 4 | 86.47% ±222.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/435?window=all) | 4 | 86.47% ±222.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $165 165 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 51.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $30.14 30.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 13.0% | $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.46 5.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 18.0% | $1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.34 0.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=435`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=435) [USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.14 14.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.34 0.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 07:29 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $14.14 14.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.01x 2026-11-08 07:29 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) [Necrz25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Necrz25) $14.14 14.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.14 30.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.13x 2026-11-08 07:29 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $14.14 14.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.30x 2026-11-08 07:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.14 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.0% pink 13.0% restricted 35.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt