--- title: "Cobalt Rose case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cobalt Rose ($9.13) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 7 items with odds, observed 116.76% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Cobalt Rose](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Cobalt Rose A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437?window=all) Price · $9.13 · 9.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $8.21 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.76% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 5 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min -0.5% 137.5% 275.5% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437?window=7d) | 5 | 116.76% ±158.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437) | 5 | 116.76% ±158.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/437?window=all) | 5 | 116.76% ±158.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $144 144 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $36.58 36.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $21.06 21.06 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 13.0% | $13.23 13.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 20.0% | $5.30 5.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 23.0% | $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=437`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=437) [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $9.13 9.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN $13.23 13.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.45x 2026-11-08 18:49 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $9.13 9.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.30 5.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.58x 2026-11-08 13:59 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $9.13 9.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN $13.23 13.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.45x 2026-11-08 13:59 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.13 9.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-08 13:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) Hidden $9.13 9.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN $21.06 21.06 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.31x 2026-11-08 13:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.13 | 89.96% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 14.0% industrial 5.0% pink 8.0% restricted 50.0% mil spec 23.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt