--- title: "Nuke Meltdown case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nuke Meltdown ($18.85) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 45.84% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Nuke Meltdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Nuke Meltdown A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439?window=all) Price · $18.85 · 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $16.96 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 45.84% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 13 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 112.3% 225.0% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439?window=7d) | 13 | 56.62% ±167.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439) | 22 | 45.84% ±128.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/439?window=all) | 22 | 45.84% ±128.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $875 875 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $405 405 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $205 205 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife) | 1 in 50 | $125 125 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $23.96 23.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $19.83 19.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $15.22 15.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $11.23 11.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.0% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.02× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 10.0% | $9.60 9.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $3.95 3.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 17.0% | $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [Sticker \| Nuke Beast sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nuke-beast) | 23.3% | $0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=439`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=439) [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.95 3.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC [Sticker | Nuke Beast sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nuke-beast) [yen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/yen) $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC [AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.83 19.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.05x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-05 03:19 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-05 03:19 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.23 11.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-05 03:19 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.22 15.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.81x 2026-11-05 03:19 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $11.23 11.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-05 03:19 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) Hidden $18.85 18.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN $60.00 60 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.18x 2026-11-04 22:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.85 | 89.99% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #D32CE6 0.3% gold 0.5% covert 11.0% covert knife 2.0% extraordinary 3.0% classified 21.0% red 7.0% mil spec 15.0% blue 17.0% #4b69ff 23.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt