--- title: "Blood Moon case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blood Moon ($56.32) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 77.62% over 10 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Blood Moon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Blood Moon A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443?window=all) Price · $56.32 · 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $50.68 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.62% · 10 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 10 openings · below min since tracking started · 10 openings · below min -0.5% 87.3% 175.0% **Small sample.** 10 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443?window=7d) | 10 | 77.62% ±96.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443) | 10 | 77.62% ±96.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/443?window=all) | 10 | 77.62% ±96.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,485 1,485 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $581 581 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $174 174 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $143 143 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 17.0% | $73.36 73.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $18.37 18.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 21.0% | $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 26.9% | $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=443`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=443) [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $143 143 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.54x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $18.37 18.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.33x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.19 4.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) [kubis\_1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kubis_1) $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $18.37 18.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.33x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) [kubis\_1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kubis_1) $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $73.36 73.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.30x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) [kubis\_1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kubis_1) $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) [kubis\_1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kubis_1) $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $143 143 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.54x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC [SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) [kubis\_1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/kubis_1) $56.32 56.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $56.32 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 51.1% extraordinary 1.0% pink 21.0% restricted 26.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt