--- title: "Ghost Protocol case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ghost Protocol ($16.77) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 10 items with odds, observed 16.00% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ghost Protocol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ghost Protocol A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445?window=all) Price · $16.77 · 16.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $15.10 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 16.00% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 38.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 621.5% 1243.5% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445?window=7d) | 1 | 23.26% ±1219.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445) | 3 | 16.00% ±704.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/445?window=all) | 3 | 16.00% ±704.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,821 2,821 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $723 723 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $188 188 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) weapon · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $73.22 73.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $31.84 31.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $17.48 17.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 15.0% | $7.25 7.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 18.0% | $3.90 3.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 21.0% | $2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=445`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=445) [Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $16.77 16.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.90 3.9 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.23x 2026-11-07 09:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $16.77 | 90.01% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.6% extraordinary 1.0% blue 7.4% pink 15.0% Consumer Grade 18.0% Mythical 21.0% restricted 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt