--- title: "Twisted case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Twisted ($42.47) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 1.84% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Twisted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Twisted A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449?window=all) Price · $42.47 · 42.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $38.22 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 1.84% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 296.5% 593.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449?window=7d) | 1 | 1.84% ±591.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449) | 1 | 1.84% ±591.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/449?window=all) | 1 | 1.84% ±591.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,200 3,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,162 1,162 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $950 950 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $584 584 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $250 250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $43.00 43 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $23.00 23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Snax (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 11 | $14.00 14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 15.0% | $6.00 6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.86 2.86 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 29.1% | $0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=449`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=449) [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.47 42.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 06:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.47 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.3% extraordinary 5.1% legendary 0.5% epic 1.0% remarkable 9.0% classified 15.0% #d32ee6 20.0% Mythical 29.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt