--- title: "Case Closed case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Case Closed ($103.20) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 21 items with odds, observed 29.07% over 2 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Case Closed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Case Closed A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456?window=all) Price · $103.20 · 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $92.88 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 29.07% · 2 openings, odds method Variance · 16.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 2 openings · below min 30 days · 2 openings · below min since tracking started · 2 openings · below min -0.5% 299.8% 600.0% **Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456?window=7d) | 2 | 29.07% ±570.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456) | 2 | 29.07% ±570.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/456?window=all) | 2 | 29.07% ±570.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $18K 17,973 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.1K 15,064 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $15K 14,999 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.4K 13,370 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.7K 12,749 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.3K 11,350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,900 3,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $1,650 1,650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,400 1,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $350 350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $314 314 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $200 200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| markeloff \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-markeloff-cologne-2016) | 15.3% | $48.00 48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 15.3% | $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| coldzera (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) | 15.3% | $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get You music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-lifes-not-out-to-get-you) | 15.3% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| X-Knives (Desert Amber) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-x-knives-desert-amber) | 20.9% | $0.06 0.06 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=456`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=456) [Sticker | coldzera (Foil) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-foil-krakow-2017) Hidden $103 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN $12.00 12 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-08 14:49 UTC [Sticker | markeloff | Cologne 2016 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-markeloff-cologne-2016) [svirkstas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/svirkstas) $103 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN $48.00 48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.47x 2026-11-08 14:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $103 | 90.00% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.9% legendary 0.0% #EB4B4B 12.5% extraordinary 1.0% covert knife 0.3% classified 17.6% #4B69FF 30.5% #8847FF 15.3% #B0C3D9 20.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt